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CHARLES JAY’S SIX-PACK – NFL WEEK 14 PREDICTIONS

TENNESSEE at N.Y. JETS
SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY
BUFFALO at PHILADELPHIA
SEATTLE at BALTIMORE
NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON
N.Y. GIANTS at MIAMI (Monday Night)

TENNESSEE at N.Y. JETS

Line: Jets -7 / Total: 43.5

We appreciate that the Titans have shown a little more “fight” in them, but this doesn’t loom as a beneficial matchup for them. For one thing, we doubt the ability of their pass rush to have a real impact on this game, as Ryan Fitzpatrick has been sacked only 14 times. And the Jets have been so successful because they get it done in the red zone, scoring the highest percentage of TD’s in the league and yes, permitting touchdowns from inside the 20 at the lowest rate. Five of the Jets’ seven wins have been by double digits – did you know that? Jay’s Play: JETS

SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY 

Line: Chiefs -11 / Total: 44

You know, this is one of those games where you see teams going in opposite directions, and you just wonder why you would be on the underdog. The Chargers appear to be going in the direction of Los Angeles, and indeed, they look like they have packed and left early, with seven losses in their last eight games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have won six in a row, with a +15 turnover ratio during that streak, with five wins in double digits and Alex Smith on a string of 305 passes without an interception. San Diego is one-dimensional (64% pass plays) and they have about as bad a set of special teams units as you are likely to find. Kansas City is coming on strong in its running game, even without the injured Jamaal Charles. And they have achieved the best average starting line of scrimmage in the NFL. Jay’s Play: KANSAS CITY

BUFFALO at PHILADELPHIA 

Line: Eagles -1 / Total: 47

Of course, the “reunion” of Shady McCoy and Chip Kelly has captured most of the back story here, and indeed McCoy is rounding into some pretty good form, with 488 yards over his last five games. Tyrod Taylor has not thrown an interception in his last six starts, and Sammy Watkins is shaking off his ailments of late (109 yards vs. Houston last week). Philadelphia is coming off a big win over New England, but the Eagles were outgained by a hearty 427-248 margin, and scored on a punt return, blocked punt and interception return. Philly is #1 in pace, but 28th in yards per drive, which means you are looking at an overworked defense if McCoy does his job (and with extraordinary incentive, I might add). Jay’s Play: BUFFALO

SEATTLE at BALTIMORE

Line: Seahawks -11 / Total: 41

Seattle looked like a team in great late-season form last week against Minnesota, and we remember what they did on the way to the Super Bowl last year. Thomas Rawls, the undrafted rookie, has not done badly in place of Marshawn Lynch (786 yards, 5.6 yards per carry). And Russell Wilson has thrown eight touchdown passes in his last two games. But he’s also been sacked 38 times, which means the Ravens can get to him. Baltimore is a beaten-up team, going without their top three offensive weapons (Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Justin Forsett), and Matt Schaub, who had already thrown two INT’s returned for touchdowns, has a chest injury, which likely puts Jimmy Clausen in the saddle. Clausen went 9 of 17 for 63 yards for the Bears against the ‘Hawks in a 26-0 loss earlier in the year. Could he get shut out again? Jay’s Play: UNDER 41

NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON 

Line: Patriots -3 / Total: 45.5

Is it conceivable that the Patriots could go down to a third straight defeat? Well, we suppose it is; after all, the Texans have permitted opponents to convert only 19% of their third downs at NRG Stadium, and Brian Hoyer isn’t having a bad year (18 TD’s, 6 INT’s, 2202 yards). JJ Watt will play despite a fractured hand. And there is big incentive for coach Bill O’Brien, the former Pats assistant. But big brother beats little brother here. Rob Gronkowski may play, and Bil Belichick will figure out a way to neutralize DeAndre Hopkins (1169 receiving yards), who is far and way the best weapon Houston has. Note that the Patriots outgained Philadelphia 427-248 last week. Jay’s Play: NEW ENGLAND

N.Y. GIANTS at MIAMI (Monday Night) 

Line: Dolphins -2 / Total: 46.5

No one necessarily expects the Dolphins to bring Odell Beckham to a screeching halt, but there are problems on the Giants’ offensive line, and they just can’t run the ball. Such is not the case with the Dolphins, who have averaged 4.7 ypc behind the surprising Lamar Miller. Sure, Ryan Tannehill was shaky in his first start with offensive coordinator Zac Taylor, but these guys aren’t strangers (Taylor was his QB coach at Texas A&M). And the Giants’ defense may be accommodating here – they have allowed 45% third down conversions and are tied for the lowest sack rate in the NFL (less than 3% of pass plays). Jay’s Play: MIAMI

(Charles Jay is a gaming professional, content specialist and sports handicapper. He offers his special commentary in the 2015 Sports Betting Guide –http://2015sportsbettingguide.com/)

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